Stock Market Tools (13) – Using Correlation as Pattern Recognition

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by KH Tang on February 12, 2014

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The above slide shows the concept of correlation formula of two set of data.  In application wise, it can use for pattern recognition.  Such as image or voice recognition, etc.In his latest book, “Cycle Analytics for Traders”, John F. Ehlers even uses it to calculate the dominant cycle in the stock chart.

So, in broad term, Correlation can be used to find the similar patterns in stock market charts.
There are various usages:

* Such as using one index or ticker to confirm another – like Dow Jones Transport Index to confirm the bull or bear state of Dow Jones Industrial Average in the past (may be not so valuable now as internet age taken over, and many software products can be download online.)

* Find some current patterns that highly correlated with historical patterns, and use it for prediction that it will follow through in the short …

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AEM Holdings – Albert Ng will resign as CEO and director on 1 April 2014….he will be replaced by Charles Cher the former CEO of Asti

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AppId is over the quota
by Kevin Scully on February 12, 2014

AEM Holdings – Albert Ng will resign as CEO and director on 1 April 2014….he will be replaced by Charles Cher the former CEO of Asti Wednesday, 12 February, 2014  8:21 AM
Posted by Kevin Scully On 7 February 2014, AEM announced that its CEO and director Albert Ng would resign on 1 April 2014.   The same announcement also said that Charles Cher, the former CEO of Asti would be taking over and replacing Albert on the same date.

CEO departures are always cause for concern and require serious review especially when they are sudden and unexpected.  AEM is one of my Stock/value picks after it got off the SGX Watchlist about two years ago.  Prior to the announcement of Albert’s resignation, AEM gave a profit warning on 29 January 2014 that 2014 would see the company report a loss.  The latter is not unexpected given that …

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CapitaMall Trust Public Offering of 7 Year Retail Bonds at 3.08% pa

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AppId is over the quota

CapitaMall Trust has launched a public offering of 7 year retail bonds at 3.08% pa. Who would have thought that they would launch a bond issue now that interest rates are likely to increase? In 2012, CapitaMalls Asia also launched a 10 year retail bond at 3.8%. However, the interest rates were low at that time and there wasn’t any indication of when interest rates might go up.

The Public Offer

CMT is the largest SREIT by market capitalization and owns many prominent shopping malls such as Raffles City, Tampines Mall, Bugis Mall, Plaza Singapura, Atrium etc.

Issue Size: of $200 million with oversubscription option of an additional $150 million

Issue Price: Par Value (Means for a $1000 principal bond, you pay $1000)

Minimum Subscription Size: $2000

Tenure: 7 Years

Interest: 3.08% payable semi annually

Rating: AA

Potential Risks Involved With Investing in CMA Bond Issue

Default …

Tagged as: Bonds • Singapore

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HPHT – My tainted view of FY results

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AppId is over the quota

Market has given HPHT the thumb down for it Q4/full year results.

NPAT and NPAT attributable to unitholders for the 4th quarter was 34% and 47% lower than last year. It seems like operations are deteriorating. First some number crunching.

1) OCF is 5.1 billion HKD compared to 4.4 billion a year ago. Q4 OCF is 1.4 billion.

2) Yantian did show better throughput of about 1% but is offset by the 12% decline in HIT ports.

3)   There were several one-off items, below are the items and the amount

a) Expenses incurred for acquisition of ACT; est. 110 million HKD

b) Additional interest expense due to refinancing of loans; est 7 million

c) One-off concession to liners due to the disruption of HIT ports due to strikes; preliminary calculation – 600K

d) Currency loss/gain- I would not classify it as one-off

4) recurring higher costs

-> …

Tagged as: Uncategorized

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Change Bait???

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AppId is over the quota

Catch no fish now. 

Time to change bait?

STI back above 3,000

Plenty of cash available for baits. Income fish is easier to catch.They said no action is also an action; but there will be an opportunity cost to it.Counting the opportunity cost ….What is likely to happen on 31 Dec 2014? …Read the full article ?

Book Review: The value investors: Lessons from the world’s top fund manager (Part 1)

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AppId is over the quota

The value investors: Lessons from the world’s top fund manager (Part 1)

Author: Ronald W. Chan

Walter Schloss (Walter & Edwin Schloss Associates)

“I learned that if I can simply survive in the market, just like surviving in the war, and not lose money, eventually I will make something”

“The best way to invest is to lay out rules which, if followed, would reduce the chance of loss”

“Nothing terrible happening to you is a profit”

“Understand ones strengths and weakness… When you have made a sound decision, make sure you have the courage to stick to it”

Strategy:

-         Finding net-nets

(CA – Liabilities) / total share outstanding

-         Stocks selling below their book value

-         Buy assets instead of earning since assets don’t change quickly unlike earnings

-         Diversify (50 – 100 stocks)

-         Doesn’t worry about macro factors, or the underlying business, but whether the stock is undervalued

…

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CPF contribution rates proposal: my views

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AppId is over the quota

There are proposals to change the CPF contribution rates for employers and employees and this proposal was raised by the NTUC. While generally financial news like this should be quite interesting to me who am a person with a keen passion for growing his monies, I just glanced through the article. As far as I am concerned, when it comes to CPF monies, I am quite nonchalant. I mean if the rates are increased, remain the same or head south; I just have to take it (the CPF) as it is.

To me, I do not really view CPF as part of my wealth as I “cannot really see the monies”. To me, CPF comes in useful as I pay my housing mortgage loans and Dependents’ Protection Scheme via the Ordinary Account while paying my premiums for the Medisave plans via the Medisave account. For the Special Account, while I …

Tagged as: CPF

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DBS 4.7% preference shares redemption

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AppId is over the quota

I was alerted this morning by a notice from DBS to redeem the 4.7% preference shares. It’s here. My first thoughts are that I haven’t even got the interest yet from the preference shares and now they are redeeming it?!

Upon closer examination, I realised that they are redeeming back another preference shares, one with the same coupon interest of 4.7% but not listed in mainboard SGX. This one that they are redeeming is the 250k per bond one.

A few issues:

1. In the prospectus for that preference shares, they noted that the first call date is 22-Oct-2020. Then of course, they also put in a clause that said that they can change the early redemption date under this nice technical name of “Change of Qualification Event”. And this notice posted by SGX is that such a change occured and they are now going to have an …

Tagged as: Bonds

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