Karzai’s Bet: US Is Bluffing in Warning on Security Pact – New York Times – United States – Google News

a  President Hamid Karzai on Sunday at the gathering of Afghan leaders whose advice on a security agreement he has rejected. if($$(‘div.articleSpanImage’) != null) {var articleSpanImage = $$(‘div.articleSpanImage’)[0].getElementsByTagName(“img”)[0];var articleSpanImageSrc = articleSpanImage.getAttribute(‘src’);articleSpanImage.setAttribute(‘src’,”http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/global/backgrounds/transparentBG.gif”);var filter = “progId:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.AlphaImageLoader(src=’”+articleSpanImageSrc+”‘, sizingMethod=’scale’ )”;articleSpanImage.style.filter = filter;} < ![endif]--> KABUL, Afghanistan — When President Hamid Karzai met with an audience of supporters gathered by the Afghan state television network, RTA, six months ago, he was asked what he would consider a favorable conclusion to the security negotiations he was conducting with the United States. “It is favorable if they surrender to us,” he said. Another question: But what if instead they just left? He smirked, then said: “The U.S. has come and will not go, brother. It does not go. Therefore, ask for your demands and don’t worry.” That unguarded moment in front of a friendly audience speaks volumes about the impasse between Mr. Karzai and his American allies. In the face of a warning delivered in person on Monday by the national security adviser, Susan E. Rice, that the United States would consider leaving no troops at all in Afghanistan past 2014 if Mr. Karzai did not promptly sign a long-term security agreement, he has made it clear that he considers it a bluff. Not only did he refuse to sign, he added conditions, including the release of all inmates from the Guantánamo Bay prison camp. He is, in effect, betting billions of dollars in international assistance that the United States does not want to go. His close aides have echoed that assessment through the recent days of diplomatic crisis. (“We don’t believe there’s any zero option,” his spokesman, Aimal Faizi, said recently.) But their optimism was not widely shared in Afghanistan on Tuesday, as Ms. Rice flew back to Washington with no promise of the follow-up talks Mr. Karzai said he wanted to pursue. Even many of Mr. Karzai’s friends were criticizing his refusal to conclude a deal. Since Sunday, Mr. Karzai’s most high-profile critic has been a man widely considered to be his political mentor and godfather, Sibghatullah Mujadidi. Mr. Mujadidi, 89, was the chairman of the gathering of Afghan leaders, the loya jirga, that approved the security deal over the weekend and recommended that Mr. Karzai sign it by year’s end. But when Mr. Karzai refused, and said he would continue negotiating with the Americans on new grounds, Mr. Mujadidi stunned the president by vowing to quit his government posts and go into exile if the agreement were not signed in the next few days. “Unfortunately President Karzai did not see the interests of his country, and he’s trying to enforce his personal opinions and wrongheaded ideas on us,” Mr. Mujadidi said. “Becoming president made him prideful.” Some Afghan officials worried that their president, who has made brinkmanship with the Americans his defining trait, had finally gone too far. “Mark my words, if we do not sign this security agreement with the Americans, things will get worse than Iraq and the 1990s Afghan civil war,” said Sayed Ishaq Gailani, a member of Parliament from Paktika Province. He urged the Americans to remember that “Karzai is not Afghanistan, he is just another individual, with illogical and illegal demands that are against all diplomatic norms.” “We don’t want the Americans to burn down the entire house to exterminate one louse,” he added. If the Americans do completely withdraw at the end of 2014, leaving no long-term training mission and virtually guaranteeing that international aid would not flow, the Afghans might face the disintegration of their security services. Some predict a descent into civil war, or a possible Taliban resurgence. The Americans risk losing long-term bases in Afghanistan, and a staging platform for counterterrorism missions against Al Qaeda and other groups in the region. Stephen Biddle, a political science professor at George Washington University, compared it to a game of chicken, when two cars are driving head on at each other to see which one will swerve first. “Neither driver wants a wreck,” he said, “but they are both willing to risk something they don’t want in order to get something they do want, and that creates car wrecks occasionally.” Ahmad Behzad, an influential member of Parliament from Herat Province, said that a full withdrawal would mean the reversal of every significant achievement of the past 12 years of American presence. But he said he did not think that would happen. “The United States and NATO strategists know that a full withdrawal in the long term is not going to be in the interests of either side,” he said. Beyond that, Mr. Behzad said, Mr. Karzai will face a huge backlash from the Afghan public if he does not sign the security deal. “People will pour into the streets and force him to sign,” he said. Each side has still left itself a way out. Ms. Rice did not say the Americans would definitely walk away after 2014, only that they would begin planning for the possibility. Mr. Karzai did say he would sign, but suggested not until after the presidential elections, next April. Many close to him still think he might still sign earlier, taking political cover by bowing to the loya jirga’s decision. Others wondered if it would really be as impossible as the Americans claim to plan for a long-term presence of 8,000 to 12,000 if the security agreement were delayed until April. Perhaps more than any logistical complication, however, political currents within the United States might add to pressure for a complete pullout, despite American military commanders’ desire for lasting bases in Afghanistan. Recent polls in the United States show more resistance than not to the idea of keeping American forces there. “He doesn’t realize how little support there is in America toward Afghanistan; he doesn’t realize how critical this is for the Afghan government,” Mr. Mujadidi said. “The Americans are the winners in this game, because what America has to lose is far less than what Afghanistan has to lose.” One mystery to nearly everyone is what is really behind Mr. Karzai’s drive to drag out the talks. One theory is that he is determined to go down in history as the leader who freed Afghanistan from the manipulation of the country’s neighbors, Pakistan and Iran, as well as the Western powers he is defying. Indeed, his aides say he is genuinely trying to get the best deal possible for his country and is sincerely concerned about the American counterterrorism raids on Afghan homes that the current wording of the security deal allows. Others speculate that he is worried that once he signs the agreement, he will become a complete lame duck, losing his last leverage on the United States — a critical point given his stated desire to keep the Americans from influencing the coming presidential election. He has long complained about the American accusations of fraud against him in the 2009 election, and wants to make sure that does not happen next year, when he will hope to support a new president who would give him a special role in a future government. “President Karzai hasn’t gone crazy,” said Jamal Naser Osoli, a pro-Karzai member of Parliament from Khost Province. “Americans intervened in previous elections, which nearly led the country to a crisis.” Mohammad Homayoon Shinwari, a presidential adviser who was in the meeting with Ms. Rice, confessed to being perplexed by his boss’s stance. “It might be a political game he’s playing, it might be for the sake of the nation or for his personal interests,” he said. “I don’t know. Politics is really what takes place behind the curtain.” In any case, Mr. Shinwari did not expect any breakthrough soon: “He is not an easy person, the president. He will resist to the last minute.” Jawad Sukhanyar and Habib Zahori contributed reporting.This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service — if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.Karzai’s Bet: US Is Bluffing in Warning on Security Pact – New York TimesUnited States – Google NewsALISSA J. RUBIN” rel=”Dofollow” target=”_blank”>ROD NORDLAND andALISSA J. RUBINKarzai’s Bet: US Is Bluffing in Warning on Security Pact… November 27, 2013 Omar Sobhani/Reuters President Hamid Karzai on Sunday at the gathering of Afghan leaders whose advice on a security agreement he has rejected. KABUL, Afghanistan — When President Hamid Karzai met with an audience of supporters gathered by the Afghan state television network, RTA, six months ago, he was asked what he would consider a favorable conclusion to the security negotiations he was conducting with the United States. “It is favorable if they surrender to us,”…Afghan-US security deal still hangs in the balance – CNN… November 26, 2013 Afghan president Hamid Karzai speaks during loya jirga in Kabul on November 21, 2013. STORY HIGHLIGHTS President Hamid Karzai says he won’t sign a security deal until after elections That’s “not viable,” U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice says The delay could mean U.S. troops pull out of Afghanistan earlier than expected Afghan elders have demands that Karzai wants Washington to meet (CNN) — Despite rousing approval by the vast majority of Afghan elders, Afghanistan’s…Karzai rejects assembly’s call to sign US deal immediately November 25, 2013 KABUL — An angry President Hamid Karzai, at times openly hostile to his US allies, on Sunday rejected the final recommendation of a four-day Afghan grand assembly that he should promptly sign a security agreement with the United States. Even though he had convened the assembly, or loya jirga, to ratify his decision to sign the agreement, Karzai told the assembled elders that he would do so only after further negotiations. He also demanded that…Afghan President Again Delays Signing US Deal – ABC News… November 24, 2013 Afghanistan’s president on Sunday refused to sign a security deal with the United States until next April’s elections, ignoring a recommendation by an assembly of Afghan elders and leaders that he do so by the end of 2013. Hamid Karzai spoke after the 2,500-member national consultative council known as the Loya Jirga approved the deal and asked that the Bilateral Security Agreement be signed by year’s end. Delegates had spent three days debating the deal…In meeting with Rice, Karzai balks on quick singing of BSA,… November 26, 2013 Over the weekend, officials in Afghanistan endorsed a security deal that would keep United Stations troops in the nation beyond next year, but President Hamid Karzai denied the request. He wants the U.S. to bring more security to the country first. NBC’s Richard Engel reports. By Daniel Arkin, Staff Writer, NBC News Afghan President Hamid Karzai on Monday pushed back against U.S. efforts to get him to quickly sign a major bilateral security agreement —…Karzai tells Susan Rice of more demands for accord extending November 26, 2013 By Tim Craig and Karen DeYoung, KABUL —Efforts by the United State and Afghanistan to finalize a long-term security arrangement appeared on the brink of collapse Monday as Afghan President Hamid Karzai made a new set of demands, and the Obama administration said it would be forced to begin planning for a complete withdrawal of all U.S. forces at the end of 2014. In a two-hour meeting here, Susan E. Rice, President Obama’s top national…US National Security Advisor Rice to meet Afghanistan’s… November 25, 2013 Over the weekend, officials in Afghanistan endorsed a security deal that would keep United Stations troops in the nation beyond next year, but President Hamid Karzai denied the request. He wants the U.S. to bring more security to the country first. NBC’s Richard Engel reports. By Dylan Welch, Reuters  KABUL – United States National Security Advisor Susan Rice will meet Afghan President Hamid Karzai on Monday amid uncertainty about the future of U.S. troops in…Afghan council defies Karzai on US security deal – Los… November 24, 2013 Advertisement KABUL, Afghanistan — In a dramatic face-to-face rebuke to Afghan President Hamid Karzai, a grand council of Afghan dignitaries voted Sunday to approve a proposed 10-year security agreement with the United States by the end of the year, agreeing to an American-imposed deadline. The white-bearded chairman of the council, known as a loya jirga, told Karzai he miscalculated when the Afghan president demanded a delay in signing the agreement until next spring. Chairman Sibghatullah…As Karzai wavers, US gives Afghanistan year-end deadline for November 22, 2013 More than 2000 Afghan tribal elders gathered to debate a deal that could cost the US billions, and leave thousands of American troops in Afghanistan for years to come. NBC’s Richard Engel reports. By Becky Bratu, Staff Writer, NBC News Afghan President Hamid Karzai triggered more confusion over a security agreement with the U.S. on Thursday by saying the pact would not be signed until after his country’s presidential elections next spring — even though…Afghan leader says peace needed before US security deal –… November 24, 2013 By Aarne Heikkila and F. Brinley Bruton, NBC News KABUL, Afghanistan - Afghan president Hamid Karzai said the United States should bring peace to his country before he would sign a security deal enabling American troops to stay beyond 2014, despite calls by an assembly of tribal elders to agree to the pact. “If there is no peace then this agreement will bring misfortune to Afghanistan,” Karzai said on Sunday in his closing remarks to the…Afghan president again delays signing US deal – USA TODAY… November 24, 2013 Patrick Quinn and Rahim Faiez, Associated Press 12:11 p.m. EST November 24, 2013 Afghan President Hamid Karzai.(Photo: Massoud Hossaini, AP) Story Highlights Afghan assembly has called on Karzai to sign a security deal with the U.S. by the end of the year Karzai argued Afghanistan needed more time to ensure that the U.S. was committed to peace in the country. Deal would enable thousands of American soldiers to stay in Afghanistan beyond a 2014 deadline…Karzai to advise delaying US-Afghan pact in closing speech:… November 23, 2013 (Reuters) – Afghan President Hamid Karzai will call for a security pact with the United States to be delayed until after an April election when he gives a closing speech to a grand assembly that will decide on the deal, his spokesman said on Saturday. With most foreign forces preparing to leave Afghanistan next year, the Bilateral Security Agreement with the United States will help define the terms under which U.S. troops stay on. Without…US to Afghanistan’s Karzai: Sign security deal or we’ll… November 26, 2013 S. Sabawoon / EPA Afghan President Hamid Karzai speaks to the Loya Jirga on Sunday. By Aarne Heikkila and Alastair Jamieson, NBC News KABUL, Afghanistan –The White House threatened to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan next year, after President Hamid Karzai refused to sign a new bilateral security agreement. Over the weekend, officials in Afghanistan endorsed a security deal that would keep United Stations troops in the nation beyond next year, but President Hamid…Loya Jirga assembly votes for U.S.-Afghan security deal –… November 24, 2013 By Aarne Heikkila and F. Brinley Bruton, NBC News KABUL, Afghanistan – An Afghan assembly of tribal elders and other leaders has called on President Hamid Karzai to sign a security pact that would allow American troops to stay in the country after 2014. Karzai had asked for the agreement to be signed after April 5 elections. Reuters reported that none of the 2,500 delegates at the assembly, or Loya Jirga, had objected to signing the…US says may pull out all troops as Afghan leader holds up… November 26, 2013 (Reuters) – Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai has refused to sign a security deal with the United States, the White House said, and Washington may have to resort to the “zero option” of withdrawing all American troops from the strife-torn country next year, as it did in Iraq. Karzai told U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice in Kabul on Monday that the United States must put an immediate end to military raids on Afghan homes and…Afghan Council Approves US Security Pact – New York Times… November 24, 2013 KABUL, Afghanistan — A grand council called by President Hamid Karzai approved a security agreement with the United States on Sunday, but the Afghan president said he wanted to keep negotiating, throwing into confusion and uncertainty future relations between the two countries. While the council, known as a loya jirga, overwhelmingly approved the deal and asked Mr. Karzai to sign it promptly – as the Americans have demanded – the loya jirga’s decisions were not…Afghan Council Approves US Security Pact – New York Times… November 24, 2013 KABUL, Afghanistan — A grand council called by President Hamid Karzai approved a security agreement with the United States on Sunday, but the Afghan president said he wanted to keep negotiating, throwing into confusion and uncertainty future relations between the two countries. While the council, known as a loya jirga, overwhelmingly approved the deal and asked Mr. Karzai to sign it promptly – as the Americans have demanded – the loya jirga’s decisions were not…Afghan Council Approves US Security Pact – New York Times… November 24, 2013 KABUL, Afghanistan — A grand council called by President Hamid Karzai approved a security agreement with the United States on Sunday, but the Afghan president said he wanted to keep negotiating, throwing into confusion and uncertainty future relations between the two countries. While the council, known as a loya jirga, overwhelmingly approved the deal and asked Mr. Karzai to sign it promptly – as the Americans have demanded – the loya jirga’s decisions were not…Afghan Council Approves US Security Pact – New York Times… November 24, 2013 KABUL, Afghanistan — A grand council called by President Hamid Karzai approved a security agreement with the United States on Sunday, but the Afghan president said he wanted to keep negotiating, throwing into confusion and uncertainty future relations between the two countries. While the council, known as a loya jirga, overwhelmingly approved the deal and asked Mr. Karzai to sign it promptly – as the Americans have demanded – the loya jirga’s decisions were not…Afghan Council Approves US Security Pact – New York Times… November 24, 2013 KABUL, Afghanistan — A grand council called by President Hamid Karzai approved a security agreement with the United States on Sunday, but the Afghan president said he wanted to keep negotiating, throwing into confusion and uncertainty future relations between the two countries. While the council, known as a loya jirga, overwhelmingly approved the deal and asked Mr. Karzai to sign it promptly – as the Americans have demanded – the loya jirga’s decisions were not…